To Win, You Should Ditch the Better Team

Statistically, the bettor tends to bet favorites. That’s a big mistake, and here is why.

To begin with, the average bettor will overstate the relative strength of the league’s better teams and players. What pro handicappers understand is that there’s actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player in a position and the worst.

When a team of slightly worse gamers is much more motivated than a group of slightly superior gamers an outright upset is possible. Most certainly, it is potential for the”poor” team to cover the point spread.

Secondly, the point spread tends to nullify any obvious scrimmage edge (skill or power advantage) a group has over its opponent. From the 1999 and 2000 seasons, by way of instance, there were 167 games in which the point spread was seven points or more (games where one group’s edge over another was perceived to become large ). While the underdog won just 36 of those games (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of the matches (while tying it in six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.

Third, by gambling an underdog, you have an important element of sport strategy on your side. NFL teams do their best to win a game. Therefore, in the past few minutes of a match, a team that is leading seldom takes much risk to score more points. Instead, it concentrates on hanging on to its lead. The group that is losing, on the other hand, usually tries to score until the bitter end. If a bettor has obtained a favorite that is ahead but not covering five minutes or not to go, that bettor is in trouble.

In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to come across a long-term winning bettor who does not bet largely underdogs.

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