BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and that I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first seat into it a couple weeks ago and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no money game guards this week for me personally but I went with Yana because I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so that I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I think she wins the fight and I think she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how high her ceiling is but in money games it doesn’t really matter a lot because we do not have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I would expect about 10x from Yana at a decision win and I will take that day in my money games.
GPP play of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights tend to score highly as there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling advances really accumulate. I expect this is a really fun fight, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find a minimum of 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a triumph. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP drama here and if he wins I would anticipate near 100 DK points.
Drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a fight that I expect to stay standing, I have quite a bit of curiosity in this struggle. I think it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so I feel a KO from guy would have a good opportunity to set them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m picking the underdog to acquire the knockout and I expect Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I will have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but I shall most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a better GPP struggle than it is for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and that I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, however I will have a good amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at the wages and that I really don’t see that happening. When he wins a definite 30-27 conclusion, he then likely scores mid 70’s and in his cost which won’t win anybody a GPP. I really don’t believe he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I think he utilizes his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I don’t see him submitting Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not inclined to take that risk with my cash. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I am 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
