BIG MARLEY’S UFC 231 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 name fights in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some strong GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I will stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the simplest cash game punt of time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we have a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At the cost she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other areas to win using a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets knocked out in 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes at one 10-point dip down. If that may be in the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can not have a lot of time in the game left. I think we function together with the favored here and toss him into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. I believe he’s a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of both but he’s never knocked out anybody, so I believe we have a solid flooring here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing since I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands multiple takedowns in this fight and can win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is getting pieced up on the toes I’m sure he is going to be going for much greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and that I think he gets a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week , but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t believe she could win, because she for sure could, and I believe she does. But I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I think we’d require a finish from her in this fight to receive 10x that wages and I think that is very unlikely to happen. Or, she will need FightMetric to rely all of her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight up to now in her career is 83 DK points and that has been against Irene Aldana who places a much greater pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward still wouldn’t be enough here to put her at the winning lineup in her 8.7k price tag. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a triumph it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my select predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: